Dear Members,
Please find attached the letter that has been sent this afternoon to Mark Drakeford, First Minister for Wales and several other labour officials from WISC, together with the report arising from the survey on pupil numbers and school viability that you kindly took part in at the beginning of the year. We have also today sent this to the party leaderships of all main Welsh political parties and to other education contacts in Wales.
As you will see, the report paints a very serious picture for Welsh schools if VAT were to be introduced. Drawing on your answers, and with analysis supported by ISC research into likely pupil movement we have shown that – in the worst-case scenario – up to 19 WISC schools could close:
- This would cause more than 6,500 children and families to have to seek new school places – likely all taking up state-funded places.
- More than 3,200 jobs would be at risk, both in our own schools and through our supply chains
- The Welsh Government could face losing almost £45 million in tax revenue (again, directly from us and from our supply chains), and incurring more than £35 million in additional spending for new school places – marking an £80 million funding gap.
Given the seriousness of this situation – both for our schools, but also for the Welsh education system and wider economy, we feel it is very important WISC made politicians aware of the danger, to encourage them to push back against the VAT policy.
However, at the same time, it is vital that we give space for our political contacts to raise these concerns internally in the first instance. This will be much more effective than external or media-driven arguments, which will force us into ‘sides’ and for both sides to become defensive.
Therefore, we will NOT be sending this report, or any details to the press. We ask that you respect this position – and similarly do NOT make any press or public comment at this point.
We are working with the ISC on the political actions around this – and it is clear that Welsh politicians must have the time to feed information back to UK politicians without feeling they are under political attack. We are keeping this position under review – we may revise our approach depending on the response we see from political figures.
That said, we are very keen that you DO send this to your Senedd members and Westminster MPs. You can find your Senedd Members’ details here and your MP’s details here – you just need to enter your school postcode.
Though the findings of the report and analysis are clearly worrying, we think this makes a potent political argument against VAT policy, and this is just part of the whole-UK challenge being raised against the plans.
We are working closely with ISC – if schools would like more details on any of these issues then please do not hesitate to contact me or Matthew Dent, the ISC Public Affairs Officer (matthew.dent@isc.co.uk, 020 7766 7059) who is copied into this email.
With all best wishes
Emma
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